Price Forecasting in the Californian Electricity Market

カテゴリ: 部門大会

論文No: 298

グループ名: 【B】平成16年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会講演論文集

発行日: 2004/08/05

タイトル(英語): Price Forecasting in the Californian Electricity Market

著者名: Jose Ruiz(北海道大学),北 裕幸(北海道大学),田中 英一(北海道大学),長谷川 淳(函館工業高等専門学校)

著者名(英語): Jose Ruiz(Graduate School of Engineering,Hokkaido University ),Hiroyuki Kita(Graduate School of Engineering,Hokkaido University ),Eiichi Tanaka(Graduate School of Engineering,Hokkaido University ),Jun Hasegawa(Hakodate National College of Technology)

キーワード: Price Forecasting|Electricity Markets|Statistical Method|Load and Price Historical Data|Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

要約(日本語): In recent years, the deregulation of electricity markets, have changed the way electric power systems operate by the introduction of the Independent System Operator (ISO) and new electricity market models consistent with new corporate organizations and market structures have been developed.　Power System engineers have been familiar with load forecasting for some time and electricity price forecasting has evolved from forecasting fuel costs to modeling electricity markets.
In this paper the authors propose a statistical method for price forecasting considering the historical price and loads of the California power market; matching the load and price profiles of the forecasting day with historical data of previous similar days. Simulation results show that the forecasted price is closely related with the price historical data and the load of the forecasting day. The accuracy of the method was evaluated by comparing the actual price with the forecasted price and calculating the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The simulation results show the accuracy of the method and its practical application. The proposed method can help market participants to evaluate the risks associated with price volatility and helps them to determine their bidding strategy.

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