短時間日射予測における予測区間算出手法の検討

カテゴリ: 部門大会

論文No: 371

グループ名: 【B】平成26年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会

発行日: 2014/09/10

タイトル(英語): Study on the Applicability of a Method to Obtain Prediction Intervals in the problem of One-hour ahead Forecasts of Insolation

著者名: Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior (産業技術総合研究所),大関 崇(産業技術総合研究所),大竹 秀明(産業技術総合研究所),髙島 工(産業技術総合研究所),荻本 和彦(東京大学)

著者名(英語): Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior (AIST),Takashi Oozeki(AIST),Hideaki Ohtake(AIST),Takumi Takashima(AIST),Kazuhiko Ogimoto(Tokyo University)

キーワード: 日射量|短時間予測|予測区間|太陽光発電|最尤法|Insolation|Short-time Forecasts|Prediction Intervals|Photovoltaics|Maximum Likelihood Estimation

要約(日本語): The objective of this study is to verify the applicability of a method to obtain prediction intervals in the problem of one-hour-ahead forecasts of insolation. The prediction interval method is based on the use of maximum likelihood estimation and the concept of similarity of forecast errors under the same weather conditions. To verify the applicability of the method 1 year of hourly one-hour-ahead forecasts of insolation were done using data of Tsukuba, and the ability of the proposed method to achieve the expected confidence levels of the prediction intervals was verified. Finally, the effect of the forecast horizon on the applicability of the method was also assessed comparing the results with the ones of one-day-ahead forecasts.

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