太陽光発電抑制計画における予測誤差のパターンの影響について

カテゴリ: 部門大会

論文No: 257

グループ名: 【B】平成29年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会

発行日: 2017/09/05

タイトル(英語): On the Impact of Different Forecast Error Patterns on Day-Ahead Planning of Photovoltaic Power Curtailment

著者名: Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior(東京大学東京大学),西辻 裕紀(東京大学),宇田川 佑介(東京大学),大関 崇(),荻本 和彦(産業技術総合研究所)

著者名(英語): Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior|Yuki Nishitsuji|Yusuke Udagawa|Takashi Oozeki|Kazuhiko Ogimoto

キーワード: 太陽光発電|前日広域予測|抑制計画|電力系統運用,Photovoltaic Power Generation,Day-ahead Regional Forecasting,Curtailment Planning,Power Grid Operation

要約(日本語): In this study we evaluate different patterns of forecast errors of PV power generation and their effects on regional curtailment of PV power. To perform the analyses, 1 year of curtailment planning based on unit commitment optimization and day-ahead forecasts of PV power were simulated for the Kanto area with data of 2013 and a photovoltaic power penetration of 33 GW. The results show that forecast errors that induce false non-occurrence of curtailment were the most frequent, arising 28% of the time. Errors that correctly indicate the occurrence of curtailment but underestimated them were common too happening 10% of time. In the extended abstract the importance of each error pattern will be shown.

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