WRFの異なる物理スキームによる気象要素予測値のばらつきを用いた日射予測大外し予見

カテゴリ: 部門大会

論文No: 174

グループ名: 【B】令和2年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会

発行日: 2020/08/28

タイトル(英語): Prediction of Forecast Busts by Variation of Weather Elements of WRF using Different Physical Schemes

著者名: 舟見翔太（名古屋大学），今中政輝（名古屋大学），栗本宗明（名古屋大学），杉本重幸（名古屋大学），加藤丈佳（名古屋大学），宇野史睦（日本大学）

著者名(英語): Shota Funami (Nagoya university), Masaki Imanaka (Nagoya university), Muneaki Kurimoto (Nagoya university), Shigeyuki Sugimoto (Nagoya university), Takeyoshi Kato (Nagoya university), Fumichika Uno (Nihon university)

キーワード: 日射予測|数値気象予報モデル|WRF|予測大外し|Solar irradiance forecasting|Numerical weather prediction model|WRF|Large forecast error

要約(英語): This study investigates the usability of variation of forecasted values of weather elements such as low level cloud coverage among Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) outputs using different physical schemes so as to predict large error of solar irradiance forecast. The predictability is evaluated by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Area Under Curves (AUC). Predictability by using the variation of forecasted values of low level cloud coverage or irradiances is relatively high for the target points in the Pacific Ocean side in the Chubu area in Japan. On the other hand, predictability by using the variation of forecasted values of wind speed is relatively high for the target points in the Japan Sea side, because the forecast of changes in the seasonal winds seems difficult.

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