太陽光発電出力の予測外れリスクを定量評価する確率予測手法の開発
太陽光発電出力の予測外れリスクを定量評価する確率予測手法の開発
カテゴリ: 部門大会
論文No: 188
グループ名: 【B】令和3年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会
発行日: 2021/08/12
タイトル(英語): Probabilistic Forecast for Quantification on Prediction Error Risks of Photovoltaic Power Generation
著者名: 野原大輔(電力中央研究所),菅野湧貴(電力中央研究所)
著者名(英語): Daisuke Nohara (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), Yuki Kanno (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)
キーワード: 確率予測|太陽光発電|信頼区間|Probabilistic Prediction|Photovoltaic|Confidential Interval
要約(英語): Renewable energy such as photovoltaic generation becomes widespread in the world. Since the renewable energy has character of volatility due in part to time evolution of weather system, prediction of the power generations is one of the most cost-effective and easily implemented tools. Despite the recent increase in the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models, there is a limitation to reduce the prediction error. The limitation can be addressed through the use of probabilistic prediction. Herein, we present a probabilistic photovoltaic prediction method based on a numerical weather prediction model, using a power conversion table empirically estimated from the relationship between area-averaged solar radiation and area-integrated photovoltaic generation to project photovoltaic power while accounting for the inherent uncertainty associated with the conversion table. The established probabilistic prediction method exhibits high statistical consistency and reliably captures the confidence interval of photovoltaic power variability.
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