Rolling UCシミュレーションによる太陽光発電出力当日更新予測の評価

カテゴリ：部門大会

論文No：020

グループ名：【B】令和7年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会

発行日：2025/9/5

タイトル(英語)：An Evaluation of PV Generation Intra-day Forecast Using Rolling UC Simulation

著者名：西辻裕紀（構造計画研究所），齊藤朋世（構造計画研究所），梅澤春樹（構造計画研究所），宇田川佑介（構造計画研究所/東京大学），荻本和彦（東京大学），瀬川周平（東京大学/J-POWERビジネスサービス），東仁（J-POWERビジネスサービス）

著者名(英語)： Yuki Nishitsuji (KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.), Tomoyo Saito (KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.), Haruki Umezawa (KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.), Yusuke Udagawa (), Kazuhiko Ogimoto (Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo), Shuhei Segawa (), Hitoshi Azuma (J-POWER Business Service Corporation)

キーワード：起動停止計画,需給運用,太陽光発電,調整力,当日予測,出力予測信頼区間,unit commitment,supply-demand balance,photovoltaics,reserve,intra-day forecast,generation forecast confidence interval

要約(日本語)：Growing installed capacity of variable renewable energy (VRE) in Japan makes technologies to deal with their large fluctuation and uncertainty more important. We focused on forecast for VRE generation out of those technologies, and developed power system operation simulator to evaluate its quality from the viewpoint of economy and security. The results of simulations showed that the annual operational cost decreased by 16 billion yen in Tohoku-Tokyo merged area in 2040 if our intra-day PV generation forecast was available, in comparison with the case in which only day-ahead forecast was available. Furthermore, the quality of PV generation confidence interval, which defines long-term reserve requirement, had larger impact on the economy than that of PV generation value forecast, in our settings.

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