Just-In-Time Modelingに基づく日射量予測手法の開発

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2011/11/01

タイトル(英語): Forecast Method of Solar Irradiance with Just-In-Time Modeling

著者名: 鈴木　孝宣（早稲田大学大学院 先進理工学研究科 電気・情報生命専攻），後藤　悠主（早稲田大学大学院 先進理工学研究科 電気・情報生命専攻），寺園　隆宏（早稲田大学大学院 先進理工学研究科 電気・情報生命専攻），若尾　真治（早稲田大学大学院 先進理工学研究科 電気・情報生命専攻），大関　崇（(独) 産業技術総合研究所）

著者名(英語): Takanobu Suzuki (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Eng. and Bioscience, Waseda University), Yusuke Goto (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Eng. and Bioscience, Waseda University), Takahiro Terazono (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Eng. and Bioscience, Waseda University), Shinji Wakao (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Eng. and Bioscience, Waseda University), Takashi Oozeki (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

キーワード: 日射量予測，ブラックボックスモデリング，Just-In-Time Modeling，GPVデータ，広域日射量　　solar irradiance forecast，black-box modeling，Just-In-Time modeling，GPV data，solar irradiance over wide area

要約(英語): PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlled-area of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.131 No.11 （2011）

本誌掲載ページ: 912-919 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/131/11/131_11_912/_article/-char/ja/