広域多地点で観測されたアンサンブル平均日射量の数時間内における最大変動幅に関する一検討

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2012/05/01

タイトル(英語): A Study on Maximum Fluctuation Width within a few Hours regarding Ensemble Average Insolation Observed at Multi-points in Large Area

著者名: 熊澤　伸介（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻），加藤　丈佳（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻），本田　信行（中部電力（株）技術開発本部電力技術研究所），小相澤　政和（中部電力（株）技術開発本部電力技術研究所），西野　慎一（中部電力（株）技術開発本部電力技術研究所），鈴置　保雄（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻）

著者名(英語): Shinsuke Kumazawa (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University), Takeyoshi Kato (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University), Nobuyuki Honda (Electric Power Research & Development Center, Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc.), Masakazu Koaizawa (Electric Power Research & Development Center, Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc.), Shinichi Nishino (Electric Power Research & Development Center, Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc.), Yasuo Suzuoki (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，日射変動，最大変動幅，平滑化効果，予測　　photovoltaic power generation，insolation fluctuation，maximum fluctuation width，smoothing effect，forecast

要約(英語): Based on the past studies regarding the insolation fluctuation, the smoothing effect of insolation among different locations would not be enough for the longer cycle than a few ten minutes. This study evaluated the maximum fluctuation width (MFW) within at most 120 min of ensemble average insolation of 40 points, its clearness index, and ensemble average insolation excluding sun-position dependent component. As the results, when the weather condition became worse after the noon in almost all area, the ensemble average insolation significantly reduced, resulting in MFW of 540W/m2 within 120 min. As other example, when the weather recovered during the morning in many areas, MFW was also large. By using the data observed for 6 months, this study calculated the cumulative frequency distribution of MFW of ensemble average insolation, its clearness index, and ensemble average insolation excluding sun-position dependent component. As the results, the absolute value of MFW of ensemble average insolation calculated with 120 min width window ranges mainly between 200-300W/m2. The absolute value of MWF of insolation excluding sun-position dependent component evaluated with 120 min width window is smaller than 200W/m2 in most days, and is not so different from MWF evaluated with 60 min width window. Finally, this study discussed the practical usability of insolation forecast.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.132 No.5 （2012） 特集：電力・エネルギー分野を支える変電技術の新展開

本誌掲載ページ: 452-458 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/132/5/132_5_452/_article/-char/ja/