わが国における住宅用太陽光発電の普及分析

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2012/05/01

タイトル(英語): Analysis of Dissemination of Residential PV Systems in Japan

著者名: 遠藤　栄一（独立行政法人産業技術総合研究所）

著者名(英語): Eiichi Endo (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

キーワード: 住宅用太陽光発電，要因分析，普及予測，投資回収期間，年間設置率，日照時間　　residential PV system，regression analysis，dissemination projection，pay-back period，annual installation，duration of sunshine

要約(英語): This paper focuses on residential PV systems in Japan. It projects installation and installed capacity of residential PV systems by analyzing correlation between their pay-back period and annual installation by new and existing houses. Exponential and hyperbolic curves are applied for correlation analysis. But exponential curve shows better fit than hyperbolic one. PV installation in new houses shows stronger correlation with pay-back period than that in existing houses. For the installation projection, target and delayed scenarios are assumed. In the target scenario, target price is achieved as planned. However it is achieved with delay in the delayed scenario. Ongoing subsidy and feed-in-tariff is also assumed. Based on the results of the analysis, the target cumulative installation and installed capacity are achieved in the target scenario. They are not so affected even if without subsidy and feed-in-tariff. But they become almost half in the delayed scenario compared with that in the target scenario. This means system price reduction by R&D and mass production is more effective than ongoing dissemination acceleration programs. To achieve the target capacity, not only cost reduction, but also conversion efficiency improvement by R&D is indispensable.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.132 No.5 （2012） 特集：電力・エネルギー分野を支える変電技術の新展開

本誌掲載ページ: 478-485 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/132/5/132_5_478/_article/-char/ja/