原子力の長期シナリオと太陽光・風力発電の大量導入を考慮に入れた日本の長期エネルギー需給に関する分析

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2012/09/01

タイトル(英語): Analysis on Japan's Long-term Energy Outlook considering Massive Deployment of Variable Renewable Energy under Nuclear Energy Scenario

著者名: 小宮山　涼一（東京大学大学院工学系研究科原子力国際専攻），藤井　康正（東京大学大学院工学系研究科原子力国際専攻）

著者名(英語): Ryoichi Komiyama (School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo), Yasumasa Fujii (School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo)

キーワード: 太陽光発電システム，風力発電，最適電源構成，出力変動，エネルギー需給見通し，原子力　　solar photovoltaic system，wind power，optimal power generation mix，output power fluctuation，energy outlook，nuclear energy

要約(英語): This paper investigates Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050 considering massive deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) system and wind power generation under nuclear energy scenario. The extensive introduction of PV system and wind power system are expected to play an important role in enhancing electricity supply security after Fukushima Nuclear Power Accident which has increased the uncertainty of future additional construction of nuclear power plant in Japan. On these backgrounds, we develop integrated energy assessment model comprised of both econometric energy demand & supply model and optimal power generation mix model. The latter model is able to explicitly analyze the impact of output fluctuation in variable renewable in detailed time resolution at 10 minutes on consecutive 365 days, incorporating the role of stationary battery technology. Simulation results reveal that intermittent fluctuation derived from high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation by natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary battery technology and the output suppression of PV and wind power. The results show as well that massive penetration of the renewables does not necessarily require the comparable scale of stationary battery capacity. Additionally, on the scenario which assumes the decommissioning of nuclear power plants which lifetime are over 40 years, required PV capacity in 2050 amounts to more than double of PV installment potential in both building and abandoned farmland area.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.132 No.9 （2012）

本誌掲載ページ: 780-792 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/132/9/132_780/_article/-char/ja/