部分的最小二乗法を用いた日射量予測とその信頼区間の推定方法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2013/01/01

タイトル(英語): An Insolation Forecasting Method by Partial Least Squares and a Confidence Interval Estimating Method

著者名: 石橋　直人（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），飯坂　達也（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），大平　涼子（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），中西　要祐（富士電機（株）技術開発本部）

著者名(英語): Naoto Ishibashi (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Tatsuya Iizaka (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Ryoko Ohira (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Yosuke Nakanishi (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，日射量予測，信頼区間，部分的最小二乗法　　photovoltaic generation，insolation forecasting，confidence interval，partial least square

要約(英語): This paper presents an insolation forecasting method using numerical weather forecasting data and a confidence interval estimating method. It is planned to introduce photovoltaic (PV) system on a large scale into the power system in order to achieve the low carbon society. Thus, it is necessary to forecast the insolation and evaluate the confidence interval in terms of power system operating and planning. This paper proposes the insolation forecasting method by Partial Least Squares (PLS) and the confidence interval estimating method considering the forecasting error distributions. PLS handles multicollinear data among input variables in order to construct proper forecasting models. The proposed method can estimate continuous confidence intervals by linearly-approximating for representative values of some weather conditions extracted features from forecasting error distributions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using numerical weather forecasting data and actual data observed by Japan Meteorological Agency. The proposed method by PLS can forecast the hourly insolations more accurately than conventional multiple regression equation. Moreover, the proposed method can evaluate continuous confidence interval.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.133 No.1 （2013） 特集：平成24 年電力・エネルギー部門大会

本誌掲載ページ: 64-71 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/133/1/133_64/_article/-char/ja/