メソ数値予報モデル格子点値を用いた電力系統全域における空間平均日射量予測に関する一検討

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2013/06/01

タイトル(英語): A Study on Spatial Average Insolation Forecast in Electric Utility Service Area using Meso-Scale Model Grid Point Value

著者名: 片岡　裕貴（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻），加藤　丈佳（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻），鈴置　保雄（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻）

著者名(英語): Yuki Kataoka (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University), Takeyoshi Kato (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University), Yasuo Suzuoki (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，日射量，予測，空間平均，メソ数値予報モデル格子点値　　photovoltaic power generation，insolation，forecast，spatial average，meso-scale model grid point value (MSM-GPV)

要約(英語): A photovoltaic power generation system (PVS) is one of the promising measures to develop a low carbon society. Because of the uncertain power output characteristics, a robust power output forecast method must be employed for realizing the high penetration of PVS into an electric power system. Although there are several researches focusing on the forecast of single point insolation, the research focusing on the forecast of spatial average insolation in electric utility service area is not enough. In this study, we developed method to forecast spatial average insolation using a meso-scale model grid point value (MSM-GPV) data computed by the meteorological simulation. The main results are as follows. In spite of very simple method using a linear function of relative humidity, low/medium/high cloud cover, and extraterrestrial insolation, %MAE of the proposed method using MSM-GPV delivered at 18: 00 is 15.7%, which is smaller by about 10% than that of single point forecast due to the so-called smoothing effect. However, there are still a few days with larger forecast error than 0.3kWh/m2. Such the large error is hardly reduced even with the later delivered MSM-GPV, because of the essential inaccuracy of MSM-GPV.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.133 No.6 （2013） 特集：電力インフラと電気自動車の融合

本誌掲載ページ: 548-554 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/133/6/133_548/_article/-char/ja/