わが国の住宅用太陽光発電の経年的普及要因分析

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2013/10/01

タイトル(英語): Long-term Analysis of Factors Influencing the Dissemination of Residential PV Systems in Japan

著者名: 遠藤　栄一（独立行政法人産業技術総合研究所）

著者名(英語): Eiichi Endo (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

キーワード: 住宅用太陽光発電，普及要因，投資回収期間，年間設置率，回帰分析，非経済性要因　　residential PV system，dissemination factor，payback period，annual installation，regression analysis，non-economic factor

要約(英語): This paper focuses on residential PV systems in Japan and analyzes their factors of dissemination quantitatively over the years by new and existing houses using annual prefectural data. A method is proposed based on regression analysis and analysis of factors using results of the regression analysis. The regression analysis is applied annually to the correlation between payback period and annual installation rate in the 47 prefectures by new and existing houses. By using the estimated annual regression lines, annual increment of installation rate is separated into two parts. One is effect of economic factors, which can be calculated with regression line for the prior year and payback period in the current year, and the rest is effect of non-economic factors. Based on the results of the analysis, non-economic effects were dominant in the early years especially for existing houses. However, recently the economic effects have become dominant in both new and existing houses. From FY2001 to FY2003, factors of dissemination are different in new and existing houses reflecting housing market. Non-economic factors are mainly based on high environment consciousness and many other occasional factors, such as the booming due to a subsidy and Feed-in-Tariff, sales promotion by house and PV cell manufacturers.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.133 No.10 （2013）

本誌掲載ページ: 761-769 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/133/10/133_761/_article/-char/ja/