デマンドレスポンスを考慮した需要予測へのJITモデリングの適用

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2014/01/01

タイトル(英語): Application of Just-in-Time Modeling to Load Forecasting with Demand Response

著者名: 石橋　直人（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），飯坂　達也（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），樺澤　明裕（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），勝野　徹（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），斎藤　俊哉（富士電機（株）技術開発本部），大野　健（富士電機（株）技術開発本部）

著者名(英語): Naoto Ishibashi (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Tatsuya Iizaka (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Akihiro Kabasawa (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Tohru Katsuno (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Toshiya Saitou (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.), Takeshi Oono (Corporate Technology Development Office, Fuji Electric Co., Ltd.)

キーワード: デマンドレスポンス，変動型CPP，JITモデリング，決定木　　demand response，adjustable critical peak pricing，just-in-time modeling，decision tree

要約(英語): This paper presents a demand response forecasting model by Just-in-Time modeling. It is planned to introduce the renewable energy on a large scale into the power system in order to achieve the low carbon society. However, the renewable energy has a negative effect on the power system. In recent years, demand response is expected to control the load as the reserve power. Thus, it is necessary to forecast load with demand response for unit commitment. The proposed JIT modeling uses the decision tree to analyze demand factors and the load correcting method of similar day. The former has functions to extract if-then rules and evaluate the variable importance. The latter corrects the load of similar day with demand rate and weather condition. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using actual data of demand response about the adjustable Critical Peak Pricing field test at Kitakyushu Smart Community Project. The proposed method with the decision tree can extract similar day more accurately than a conventional method based on meteorological condition and day type. Moreover, the proposed load correcting method can correct the extracted load accurately.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.134 No.1 （2014） 特集：平成25年電力・エネルギー部門大会

本誌掲載ページ: 24-31 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/134/1/134_24/_article/-char/ja/