日射量，統計モデルと配電線潮流を用いた太陽光発電出力推定に関する研究

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2014/06/01

タイトル(英語): Estimation of Power Output of Photovoltaic Systems based on Solar Irradiation, Statistical Models and Power Flow in Distribution Line

著者名: Pathom Attaviriyanupap（三菱電機（株）電力流通プロジェクトグループ），平田　飛仙（三菱電機（株）情報技術総合研究所），小島　康弘（三菱電機（株）先端技術総合研究所），Marta Marmiroli（三菱電機（株）電力流通プロジェクトグループ）

著者名(英語): Pathom Attaviriyanupap (Power Grid Project Group, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation), Takahisa Hirata (Information Technology R&D Center, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation), Yasuhiro Kojima (Advanced Technology R&D Center, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation), Marta Marmiroli (Power Grid Project Group, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation)

キーワード: 配電系統，周波数分離，太陽光発電，再生可能エネルギー，日射量　　distribution system，frequency classification，photovoltaic power generation，renewable energy，solar irradiation

要約(英語): In this paper, the authors propose a method to estimate total power output of photovoltaic (PV) systems connected in the distribution network. Total power output of PV systems connected to the distribution line is estimated based on the observed solar irradiation, statistical model and power flow in the distribution line, where PV systems are connected. The proposed method is divided into low and high-frequency component estimations, which estimate output of PV systems down to second and minute resolution depending on the temporal resolution of power flow. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated based on simulations using real data from two Japanese demonstration projects. For the estimation of output of PV systems in the distribution line, simulation results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) of estimation varies between 4 and 14 percents (normalized by PV systems capacity) according to power flow temporal resolution, PV penetration level, distance between solar irradiation observation point and distribution line. Up-scaling model is also investigated. Theoretical evaluation results show that having one representative point in every 40km × 40km distribution network is the most suitable configuration for estimating PV systems output for overall power system.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.134 No.6 （2014） 特集：再生可能エネルギーの発電予測とシステム技術

本誌掲載ページ: 484-493 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/134/6/134_484/_article/-char/ja/