天空画像を利用した半径数km内の空間平均日射強度リアルタイム推定

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2014/06/01

タイトル(英語): Nowcasting of Spatial Average Irradiance in Several km Radius Area using All-sky Image

著者名: 牧野　裕太（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻），栗本　宗明（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻），加藤　丈佳（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻），鈴置　保雄（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電子情報システム専攻）

著者名(英語): Yuta Makino (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University), Muneaki Kurimoto (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University), Takeyoshi Kato (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University), Yasuo Suzuoki (Dept. of Electrical Eng. and Comp. Sci., Grad. School of Eng., Nagoya University)

キーワード: 太陽光発電システム，天空画像，日射強度，リアルタイム推定　　photovoltaic power generation system，all-sky image，irradiance，nowcasting

要約(英語): Because of the unstable power output characteristics of a photovoltaic power generation system (PVS), the on-line monitoring or nowcasting of the aggregated PVS power output is important for the stable operation of electric power system. In this paper, we propose a nowcasting method of the spatial average irradiance in the area of several km radius using the all-sky image and the observed irradiance both at single point. First, the proposed method classifies the sky condition based on the color information of the all-sky image. If the sky is classified as the uniform condition (very fine or very cloudy), the spatial average irradiance is estimated as the same with the single point observed irradiance. If not, the spatial average irradiance is estimated by using a neural network (NN) model utilizing the color information as the inputs. As a result of a demonstrative study for several months, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the NN model-based estimation for the periods of the non-uniform sky condition is 103.8W/m2 (15.2%). Because the performance of the sky condition classification is high, RMSE for the periods of the uniform sky condition is 41.8W/m2 (8.7%), resulting in RMSE of 77.4W/m2 (13.5%) for the entire periods.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.134 No.6 （2014） 特集：再生可能エネルギーの発電予測とシステム技術

本誌掲載ページ: 510-517 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/134/6/134_510/_article/-char/ja/