気象庁メソモデルの日射量予測誤差要因の解析

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2014/06/01

タイトル(英語): Analysis of Error Causes of the Irradiation Forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model

著者名: 下瀬　健一（（独）防災科学技術研究所 観測・予測研究領域），大竹　秀明（（独）産業技術総合研究所 太陽光発電工学研究センター），Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior（（独）産業技術総合研究所 太陽光発電工学研究センター），高島　工（（独）産業技術総合研究所 太陽光発電工学研究センター），大関　崇（（独）産業技術総合研究所 太陽光発電工学研究センター），山田　芳則（気象庁 気象研究所 予報研究部）

著者名(英語): Ken-ichi Shimose (Department of Monitoring and Forecasting Research, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention), Hideaki Ohtake (Research Center for Photovoltaic Technologies, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior (Research Center for Photovoltaic Technologies, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Takumi Takashima (Research Center for Photovoltaic Technologies, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Takashi Oozeki (Research Center for Photovoltaic Technologies, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Yoshinori Yamada (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)

キーワード: 気象庁メソモデル，日射量予測，雲量予測，感度解析　　Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model，irradiation forecast，cloud amount forecast，sensitivity experiment

要約(英語): In order to validate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) of the weather forecast from the Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model (MSM), error causes of relatively large error cases of the forecast GHI in MSM is investigated around Tsukuba, Japan. The extracted 89 cases are categorized as overestimation or underestimation and are investigated in connection with weather conditions. For the case of overestimation, when the thick stratocumulus appears at the low level, the MSM cloud amount forecast fails to simulate such low-level cloud. This is the one of the reason why the forecast GHI becomes overestimation. For the case of underestimation, when the thin clouds appear through the all levels, the MSM fails to simulate cloud amount at middle- and high levels. This is the one of the reason why the forecast GHI becomes underestimated. In order to investigate the relationship between the irradiance forecast and the cloud amount forecast in details, sensitivity experiments of irradiance-related schemes are executed. Two types of experiments are made. One is the sensitivity experiment of the horizontal and vertical resolution in order to change the cloud distribution, which has the strong affection to the forecast GHI. The other is the sensitivity experiment of the effective radius of cloud water and ice affecting the interaction between the cloud and the solar radiation. Since both experiments have strong sensitivity to the forecasted GHI, it is important to develop the scheme which forecasts the cloud distribution and to choose the suitable effective radius of cloud water and ice.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.134 No.6 （2014） 特集：再生可能エネルギーの発電予測とシステム技術

本誌掲載ページ: 518-526 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/134/6/134_518/_article/-char/ja/