空間的相関分析に基づく配電運用管理向け短期太陽光発電量予測手法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2014/09/01

タイトル(英語): Short-term Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Generation for Distribution Management System based on Spatial Correlation Analysis

著者名: 松田　勝弘（東北電力（株）研究開発センター），有松　健司（東北電力（株）研究開発センター），山根　憲一郎（（株）日立製作所日立研究所），渡辺　雅浩（（株）日立製作所日立研究所），山崎　潤（（株）日立製作所日立研究所），村越　潤（東北電機製造（株））

著者名(英語): Katsuhiro Matsuda (Research & Development Center, Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc.), Kenji Arimatsu (Research & Development Center, Tohoku Electric Power Co., Inc.), Ken'ichiro Yamane (Hitachi Research Laboratory, Hitachi, Ltd.), Masahiro Watanabe (Hitachi Research Laboratory, Hitachi, Ltd.), Jun Yamazaki (Hitachi Research Laboratory, Hitachi, Ltd.), Jun Murakoshi (Tohoku Electric Manufacturing Co., Ltd.)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，短期予測，相関分析，雲の移動，配電系統　　photovoltaic power generation，short-term prediction，correlation analysis，cloud motion，distribution system

要約(英語): This paper presents a prediction method of photovoltaic power generation amount as a fundamental technology for distribution system. This method is based on correlation analysis of insolation between two locations. The analysis was made using data measured by actinometers which were installed in several places around a distribution area. Based on the analysis, parameters for prediction which are moving direction and speed of insolation fluctuation were identified. And photovoltaic power generation amount was predicted based on the parameters. From the evaluation using measured insolation data, it found the method considerably improved the prediction accuracy in the case of high correlation through comparison with the conventional method.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.134 No.9 （2014）

本誌掲載ページ: 759-766 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/134/9/134_759/_article/-char/ja/