太陽光発電出力予測のためのJust-In-Time Modelingを用いた日射量予測信頼区間の推定方法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2015/03/01

タイトル(英語): Estimation Method of Prediction Interval of Solar Irradiance Based on Just-In-Time Modeling for Photovoltaic Output Prediction

著者名: 山嵜　朋秀（早稲田大学大学院先進理工学研究科電気・情報生命専攻／（独）科学技術振興機構,CREST），本間　隼人（早稲田大学大学院先進理工学研究科電気・情報生命専攻／（独）科学技術振興機構,CREST），若尾　真治（早稲田大学大学院先進理工学研究科電気・情報生命専攻／（独）科学技術振興機構,CREST），藤本　悠（早稲田大学ナノ理工学研究機構／（独）科学技術振興機構,CREST），林　泰弘（早稲田大学大学院先進理工学研究科電気・情報生命専攻／（独）科学技術振興機構,CREST）

著者名(英語): Tomohide Yamazaki (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda University/JST, CREST), Hayato Homma (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda University/JST, CREST), Shinji Wakao (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda University/JST, CREST), Yu Fujimoto (Institute for Nanoscience & Nanotechnology, Waseda University/JST, CREST), Yasuhiro Hayashi (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda University/JST, CREST)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，日射量予測，Just-In-Time Modeling，予測信頼区間，カーネル密度推定法　　photovoltaics，forecast of solar irradiance，Just-In-Time Modeling，prediction interval，Kernel density estimation

要約(英語): PV system recently attracts much attention on the back of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements and energy problems. Therefore, a large scale introduction of PV system is expected in the near future. On the other hand, a lot of PV systems connected to the power system bring on some problems. For example, a system voltage often drifts from the norm when the reverse power flow increase. Accordingly, it is necessary to perform an optimal system operation in order to utilize a solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers, e. g. storage batteries. Especially, the forecast information i.e., the reliability as well as predicted solar irradiance is essential for the effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way to estimate the prediction interval of the solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling). We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive the high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also talk about the future outlook of this study.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.135 No.3 （2015）

本誌掲載ページ: 160-167 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/135/3/135_160/_article/-char/ja/