太陽光発電出力予測に基づく起動停止計画モデルの開発と実規模系統の解析

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2016/05/01

タイトル(英語): Development of Unit Commitment Model Considering Confidence Intervals of Photovoltaics Forecast and Analysis of a Large Scale Power System

著者名: 宇田川　佑介（東京大学生産技術研究所／（株）構造計画研究所），荻本　和彦（東京大学生産技術研究所），大関　崇（（独）産業技術総合研究所），大竹　秀明（（独）産業技術総合研究所），池上　貴志（東京農工大学），福留　潔（（株）JPビジネスサービス）

著者名(英語): Yusuke Udagawa (Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo/KOZO KEIKAKU ENGINEERING Inc.), Kazuhiko Ogimoto (Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo), Takashi Oozeki (The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Hideaki Ohtake (The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Takashi Ikegami (Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology), Suguru Fukutome (JP Business Service Corporation)

キーワード: 起動停止計画，需給運用，再生可能エネルギー，太陽光発電，予測精度，予測誤差　　unit commitment，supply-demand balance，renewable energy，photovoltaic，prediction accuracy，prediction error

要約(英語): We have developed a unit commitment (UC) model which can consider the confidence intervals of photovoltaics (PV) forecast data. We also analyzed supply-demand balance for the Tokyo Electric Power Company area with highly penetrated variable renewable energy sources in 2030. For 2030, 53GW of installed PV capacity in Japan (17.5GW in Tokyo area) was assumed. The case study was carried out to investigate the effect of the UC considering forecast error on day ahead supply-demand balance. As a result, the number of operating thermal power plants increased and the rate of operation of coal-fired power plants decreased to reserve the Load-Frequency Control capacity whose amount increased due to highly penetrated PV. Pumped storage plants stored water in the daytime, when the power of PV is peak, not in midnight to increase the amount of electric load and the operation rate of thermal power plants. Therefore broaden confidence intervals or increasing the amount of forecast errors considered in UC raised the expected operational cost.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.136 No.5 （2016） 特集：電力系統における需給解析・シミュレーションの動向

本誌掲載ページ: 484-496 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/136/5/136_484/_article/-char/ja/