配電系統における実負荷電流の予測信頼区間推定

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2016/12/01

タイトル(英語): Prediction Interval Estimation of Demand Curve in Electric Power Distribution System

著者名: 山?　朋秀（早稲田大学大学院先進理工学研究科電気・情報生命専攻／（独）科学技術振興機構,CREST），若尾　真治（早稲田大学大学院先進理工学研究科電気・情報生命専攻／（独）科学技術振興機構,CREST），伊藤　広和（東京電力ホールディングス（株）），佐野　常世（東京電力ホールディングス（株））

著者名(英語): Tomohide Yamazaki (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda University/JST, CREST), Shinji Wakao (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Faculty of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda University/JST, CREST), Hirokazu Ito (Tokyo Electric Power Holdings, Inc.), Tsuneyo Sano (Tokyo Electric Power Holdings, Inc.)

キーワード: ロードカーブ予測，配電系統，JITモデリング，予測信頼区間，カーネル密度推定，クラスター分析　　load forecasting，electric power distribution system，Just-In-Time modeling，prediction interval，kernel density estimation，cluster analysis

要約(英語): In a distribution line, power system control and power equipment investment are planned based on a measured power system current. However, recently the mass introduction of PV make it difficult for us to precisely measure the demand curve that is a current consumed by electrical equipment because the reversal power flow from PV systems is superposed. Therefore, the prediction of demand curves of distribution line is indispensable for power system management. Additionally, it is also necessary to estimate the reliability of the predicted values as well as predicted current itself. In this paper, we propose the estimation method of the prediction interval that is the index of reliability based on the past demand curve database. The feature of the proposed method based on Just-In-Time (JIT) modeling make it possible for us to accurately estimate the prediction interval by the normalized database of demand curve. In this paper, some numerical examples are presented, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.136 No.12 （2016）

本誌掲載ページ: 848-857 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/136/12/136_848/_article/-char/ja/