ローカル電力需給制御に適した太陽光発電量の予測手法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2017/07/01

タイトル(英語): A Simple and Reliable PV Forecasting Method for Local Area Energy Management

著者名: 佐々木　豊（広島大学大学院工学研究科），餘利野　直人（広島大学大学院工学研究科），Farid Imam　Wahyudi（広島大学大学院工学研究科），清木場　大（広島大学大学院工学研究科），朝田　光雅（広島大学大学院工学研究科），馬　立英（Concordia University），造賀　芳文（広島大学大学院工学研究科）

著者名(英語): Yutaka Sasaki (Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University), Naoto Yorino (Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University), Farid Imam Wahyudi (Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University), Dai Seikoba (Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University), Mitsumasa Asada (Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University), Liying Ma (Concordia University), Yoshifumi Zoka (Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University)

キーワード: 不確定性，太陽光発電予測，ローカル電力需給制御　　uncertainties，PV forecasting，local energy management

要約(英語): Various forecasting methods for photovoltaic (PV) generations have been proposed so far. However, the conventional methods cannot be widely used in various situations because they require sophisticated data that cannot easily be obtained. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of such methods tend to deteriorate especially due to lack of data. This paper proposes a simple and reliable PV forecasting method for local energy management. The proposed method uses only public weather forecasting data that is easily obtained. The method maintains high accuracy by using the real time correlation data between the target and neighboring areas. Multiple neural networks are effectively used based on a weather clustering technique. It has been confirmed that the proposed method shows the robustness in the prediction accuracy when used for local area PV prediction.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.137 No.7 （2017）

本誌掲載ページ: 538-545 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/137/7/137_538/_article/-char/ja/