翌日PV発電出力における10秒単位変動の信頼区間推定

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2018/01/01

タイトル(英語): Prediction Interval Estimation of 10 Second PV Output Fluctuation in the Next Day

著者名: 粂川　奈穂（早稲田大学大学院 先進理工学研究科 電気・情報生命専攻），本間　隼人（早稲田大学大学院 先進理工学研究科 電気・情報生命専攻），若尾　真治（早稲田大学大学院 先進理工学研究科 電気・情報生命専攻）

著者名(英語): Nao Kumekawa (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Department of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda University), Hayato Homma (School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Department of Electric Engineering and Bioscience, Waseda Unive

キーワード: 太陽光発電出力，10秒単位変動，信頼区間推定，平滑化手法，2次元カーネル密度推定＼PV output，10 second fluctuation，prediction interval estimation，smoothing method，two-dimensional kernel density method

要約(英語): Photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems have gained much attention against a background of energy and environmental problems. However, the output of PV system depends on climate conditions. Therefore, a mass introduction of PV results in the power quality deterioration in the distribution system. To overcome the difficulty, it is effective to introduce Low Voltage Regulator (LVR) to the distribution system. However, the application of LVR brings a new problem, i.e., a control delay for activating the tap after detecting the fluctuation. With this background, to provide more useful predictive information in advance, this paper deals with a novel prediction interval estimation method of 10 second PV fluctuation with two-dimensional kernel density estimation. We also carry out the prediction by using several different methods for comparison, e.g., the conventional method with one-dimensional kernel density estimation and the application of various smoothing methods to this conventional method. Finally, some numerical results, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on the basis of several indexes, are also presented.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.138 No.1 （2018）

本誌掲載ページ: 2023/05/13 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/138/1/138_5/_article/-char/ja/