時間相関と変動する不確実性を考慮した確率的日射量予測

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2018/02/01

タイトル(英語): Probabilistic Solar Irradiation Forecast with Consideration of Temporal Correlation and Varying Uncertainty

著者名: 志賀　孝広（（株）豊田中央研究所），加藤　丈佳（名古屋大学未来材料・システム研究所）

著者名(英語): Takahiro Shiga (Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc.), Takeyoshi Kato (Institute of Materials and Systems for Sustainability (IMaSS), Nagoya University)

キーワード: 日射量，確率的予測，ベータ回帰，コピュラ，マルコフ過程，日積算日射量　　solar irradiation，probabilistic forecast，beta regression，copula，Markov process，daily cumulative irradiation

要約(英語): Although renewable energies such as photovoltaics are penetrating rapidly, in order to harness their varying output efficiently and robustly it is necessary to control the power systems with not only hardware facilities but also software systems. To this end, electricity storage devices from large stationary batteries to electric vehicles will be one of the most important hardware systems, which will require also scheduled operation based on forecasting output of renewables. As the forecast of renewables' output is a complex problem because of its large and varying uncertainty, a probabilistic forecast is better than a deterministic forecast. The aim of this paper is to advance a novel approach of probabilistic forecast of solar irradiation with consideration of temporal correlation as well as varying uncertainty by using copula-based Markov process and variable dispersion beta regression. Employing these methods, we have verified in terms of the performance indexes of reliability and sharpness that the marginal distributions of solar irradiations are well expressed by the beta distribution with varying dispersion as well as their temporal correlation can be well modeled by using Gumbel copula. This temporally-correlated model enables updating a day-ahead forecast by observed irradiations resulting in improving confidence intervals. In addition, probabilistic scenarios of irradiations can be generated by this model, which enables a precise probabilistic forecast of daily cumulative irradiation.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.138 No.2 （2018） 特集：平成29 年電力・エネルギー部門大会

本誌掲載ページ: 147-157 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/138/2/138_147/_article/-char/ja/