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コピュラを用いた発電出力シナリオに基づくウィンドファームの確率論的計画発電

コピュラを用いた発電出力シナリオに基づくウィンドファームの確率論的計画発電

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カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2018/06/01

タイトル(英語): A Stochastic Scheduled Operation of Wind Farm Based on Scenarios of the Generated Power with Copula

著者名: 吉田 孝太郎(大阪府立大学工学研究科),根岸 信太郎(大阪府立大学工学研究科),高山 聡志(大阪府立大学工学研究科),石亀 篤司(大阪府立大学工学研究科)

著者名(英語): Kotaro Yoshida (Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University), Shintaro Negishi (Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University), Satoshi Takayama (Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University), Atsushi Ishigame

キーワード: 風力発電,蓄電池,計画発電,ランプ変動,確率計画法,コピュラ  wind power generation,battery,scheduled operation,ramp event,stochastic programming,copula

要約(英語): Recently, the penetration of wind farm (WF) has been increasing because of the global warming and the lack of the fossil energy resource. However, WF output fluctuate due to the weather and the seasonality. Specially, the long-term fluctuation is called “Ramp event”. It's difficult for WF output to dispatch to the power grid without controlling the ramp events. This paper proposes the method of scheduled operation to mitigate the ramp events and reduce the imbalance energy with the stochastic programming. In this method, it's necessary to use the WF output scenarios. However, there has never been studied the method of generating scenarios with the temporal correlation so far. Therefore, we propose the production method of generating scenarios considering the temporal correlation with copula. Finally, this paper shows the validity and the effectiveness of these methods through computational simulations using the integrated WF data of Tohoku area.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B(電力・エネルギー部門誌) Vol.138 No.6 (2018)

本誌掲載ページ: 482-493 p

原稿種別: 論文/日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/138/6/138_482/_article/-char/ja/

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