自然変動電源の出力予測値を用いた運転予備力の経済性分析

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2018/09/01

タイトル(英語): Economic Analysis of Operating Reserve Using Forecasted Variable Renewable Generation

著者名: 泉田　悠貴（東京大学大学院 新領域創成科学研究科 人間環境学専攻），浅野　浩志（東京大学大学院 新領域創成科学研究科 人間環境学専攻／（一財）電力中央研究所 エネルギーイノベーション創発センター），坂東　茂（東京大学大学院 新領域創成科学研究科 人間環境学専攻／（一財）電力中央研究所 エネルギーイノベーション創発センター）

著者名(英語): Yuki Izumida (Department of Human and Engineered Environmental Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Science, The University of Tokyo), Hiroshi Asano (Department of Human and Engineered Environmental Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Science, The Univer

キーワード: 自然変動電源，発電機起動停止計画，経済負荷配分，運転予備力，経済性分析，出力予測誤差　　variable renewable generation，unit commitment，economic load dispatch，operating reserve，economic analysis, forecast error

要約(英語): The installed capacity of variable renewable generation (VRG) has been rapidly increasing in Japan. Consequently, there is concerned shortage of operating reserve, which compensates demand and supply imbalance. In this study, we analyze the economy of operating reserve by supply-demand simulation in Tohoku area. First, we use historical weather data to calculate forecast and actual output of VRG, and analyze characteristics of prediction errors. Second, we calculate operating cost (fuel cost and start up cost and sodium-sulfur battery cost and Lithium-ion battery cost) by using of unit commitment and economic load dispatch. Finally, operating reserve cost is derived by operating cost, and analyze economic characteristics. As a result, it became clear that operating reserve cost is 1. having different cost for each month 2. depends on fleet of thermal generation on grid and 3. amount of VRG prediction error and characteristic of overprediction/underprediction.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.138 No.9 （2018）

本誌掲載ページ: 757-765 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/138/9/138_757/_article/-char/ja/