最新の気象庁現業数値予報モデルの日射量予測の検証

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2018/11/01

タイトル(英語): The Latest Update of JMA Numerical Weather Prediction Models and its Solar Power Forecasting Errors

著者名: 大竹　秀明（（国研）産業技術総合研究所 太陽光発電研究センター／気象庁 気象研究所 予報研究部），宇野　史睦（（国研）産業技術総合研究所 太陽光発電研究センター／気象庁 気象研究所 予報研究部），大関　崇（（国研）産業技術総合研究所 太陽光発電研究センター），山田　芳則（気象庁 気象研究所 予報研究部）

著者名(英語): Hideaki Ohtake (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)/Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency), Fumichika Uno (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)/Meteorological

キーワード: 太陽光発電，日射量予測，数値予報モデル，GSM，MSM，LFM　　photovoltaics，solar irradiance forecast，numerical weather prediction model，GSM，MSM，LFM

要約(英語): High penetration of photovoltaic power systems has been accelerated in the Japanese islands. Needs of both intraday and several days-ahead forecasts that are calculated from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) have been required to make safe control of electric power systems. Since 5 December 2017, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) started to provide the solar irradiance forecasts from operational NWPs for research and/or commercial areas. This paper describes the specification on JMA operational NWPs (global spectral model (GSM), meso-scale model (MSM) and local forecast model (LFM), respectively). MSM and LFM have been updated from a conventional non-hydrostatic model (NHM), “JMA-NHM”, to a new NHM “asuca” after 28 February 2017 for the MSM and 29 January 2015 for the LFM, respectively. Physical processes (including cloud-radiation process) in GSM were also updated after March 2016. This study showed the latest validation results of intraday ahead and several-days ahead solar forecasts from the GSM, MSM and LFM during the four years period from 2014 to 2017. Daily-based validation results for the GSM suggested that positive biases had been found compared with surface solar irradiance observation as well as the conventional GSM. Seasonal variations in biases have been remained in the MSM and LFM. LFM forecasts are improved for a coastal area under cloudy conditions after the update to the new model, asuca.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.138 No.11 （2018）

本誌掲載ページ: 881-892 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/138/11/138_881/_article/-char/ja/