発電機起動停止計画にて確保する出力調整力に基づく太陽光発電出力の確率的予測の利用方法に関する一検討

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2019/11/01

タイトル(英語): A Study on Utilization of Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Output based on Regulation Reserve in Unit Commitment Scheduling

著者名: 小豆澤　諒太（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電気工学専攻），今中　政輝（名古屋大学未来材料・システム研究所），栗本　宗明（名古屋大学未来材料・システム研究所），杉本　重幸（名古屋大学未来材料・システム研究所），加藤　丈佳（名古屋大学未来材料・システム研究所）

著者名(英語): Ryota Azukisawa (Dept. of Electrical Eng., Grad School of Eng., Nagoya University), Masaki Imanaka (Institute of Materials and Systems for Sustainability, Nagoya University), Muneaki Kurimoto (Institute of Materials and Systems for Sustainability, Nagoya University), Shigeyuki Sugimoto (Institute of Materials and Systems for Sustainability, Nagoya University), Takeyoshi Kato (Institute of Materials and Systems for Sustainability, Nagoya University)

キーワード: 発電機起動停止計画，太陽光発電，予測，信頼区間，需給運用　　unit commitment scheduling，photovoltaic power generation，forecasting，confidence interval，supply and demand balancing

要約(英語): In order to maintain the electricity supply and demand balancing of an electric power system with high penetration photovoltaic (PV) power generation, the improvement of unit commitment (UC) scheduling based on a highly accurate and reliable forecasting of PV power generation is essentially important. Considering the wide variety of PV power generation depending on the change in weather conditions, the probabilistic forecast of PV power generation should be applied to UC scheduling. When the larger confidence interval is used in UC scheduling, the power supply reliability can be improved although the operation cost would be increased. In order to improve the power supply reliability while avoiding the increase in operation cost as much as possible, the proper confidence interval should be used. For this purpose, this paper proposes a novel UC scheduling method based on the adaptive confidence interval, which is selected so that the power supply flexibility (or reserve capacity) exceeds the predetermined level. As a first step of developing such a UC scheduling method, this paper demonstrates the effect of adaptive confidence interval for several different situations in terms of price of electricity purchased for compensating for the shortage of electricity supply and PV penetration level. The results suggest that the proposed method is useful when the PV penetration is huge but acceptable level, and the electricity price for shortage compensation is not expensive so much.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.139 No.11 （2019） 特集：電磁界解析などの大規模数値計算技術

本誌掲載ページ: 667-677 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/139/11/139_667/_article/-char/ja/