PVが連系された配電線のPV出力推定と実負荷の短時間予測

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2020/12/01

タイトル(英語): Estimation of PV Output and Forecasting of Real Load in a Distribution Line Interconnecting PV Generation

著者名: 金尾　則一（北陸電力（株）技術開発研究所），石丸　雅章（北陸電力（株）技術開発研究所）

著者名(英語): Norikazu Kanao (Engineering Research & Development Center, Hokuriku Electric Power Company), Masaaki Ishimaru (Engineering Research & Development Center, Hokuriku Electric Power Company)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，線路潮流，日射量，カルマンフィルタ，出力推定，需要予測　　photovoltaic generation，power flow，solar radiation，Kalman filter，output estimation，load forecasting

要約(英語): Recently, a lot of photovoltaic (PV) generation systems have been penetrated in distribution power systems. It is important for the power system operators to know a total value of PV output and real load of a distribution line in real time. But the real load is unmeasurable while the PV systems are generating. This paper describes an estimation method of PV output and a forecasting method of real load in a distribution line using two types of Kalman filters with power flow data (P, Q) and solar radiation. These methods were examined for accuracy in a real distribution line in Hokuriku Electric Power Company. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) for estimated PV output and 2-hour forecasted real load were about 7% and 10% error rate of total PV capacity through one year, respectively. These results show that these methods would be acceptable for power system operators because this method is simpler than the other methods that have been proposed in the past.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.140 No.12 （2020）

本誌掲載ページ: 842-850 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/140/12/140_842/_article/-char/ja/