2050年CO2正味ゼロ排出に向けた日本のエネルギー構成―自然変動電源の立地制約を考慮した分析―

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2022/07/01

タイトル(英語): Energy Mix for Net Zero CO2 Emissions by 2050 in Japan―An Analysis Considering Siting Constraints on Variable Renewable Energy―

著者名: 大槻　貴司（横浜国立大学／（一財）日本エネルギー経済研究所），尾羽　秀晃（（一財）日本エネルギー経済研究所），川上　恭章（（一財）日本エネルギー経済研究所），下郡　けい（（一財）日本エネルギー経済研究所），水野　有智（（一財）日本エネルギー経済研究所），森本　壮一（（一財）日本エネルギー経済研究所），松尾　雄司（立命館アジア太平洋大学／（一財）日本エネルギー経済研究所）

著者名(英語): Takashi Otsuki (Yokohama National University/The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Hideaki Obane (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Yasuaki Kawakami (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Kei Shimogori (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Yuji Mizuno (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Soichi Morimoto (The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Yuhji Matsuo (Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University/The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)

キーワード: エネルギーミックス，電源構成，カーボンニュートラル，エネルギーシステムモデル，費用最小化　　energy mix，power generation mix，carbon neutral，energy system model，cost optimization

要約(英語): This study investigated cost-effective energy mix for realizing net zero CO2 emissions in Japan by 2050, employing an energy system optimization model with hourly electricity balances. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to capture intermittency of variable renewable energy (VRE) and costs of system integration measures. Siting constraints on VRE, such as prohibiting solar PV and onshore wind developments in forest and offshore wind developments inside fishery rights area, are incorporated in the model to reflect the environmental protection and social acceptance perspectives. Simulation results imply that a well-balanced power generation mix, combining renewables, nuclear, gas-fired with carbon capture and storage, as well as ammonia-fired, would contribute to curbing mitigation costs. In contrast, a simulation case with very high VRE penetration poses economic challenges. Average shadow price of electricity in 2050 in a 100% renewables case (RE100) is projected to be more than doubled from a reference case which is based on middle-of-the-road assumptions. Marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 increases from 49,200 JPY/tCO2 in the reference case to 75,300 JPY/tCO2 in the RE100 case. The economic viability of high VRE penetration is improved by relaxing the siting constraints, although it may raise environmental and social concerns.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.142 No.7 （2022）

本誌掲載ページ: 334-346 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/142/7/142_334/_article/-char/ja/