メソアンサンブル予報を用いたJust-In-Time Modelingによる翌日エリア太陽光発電予測

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2023/01/01

タイトル(英語): Area Day-ahead Photovoltaic Power Prediction by Just-In-Time Modeling with Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System

著者名: 森　友輔（早稲田大学），若尾　真治（早稲田大学），大竹　秀明（（独）産業技術総合研究所 福島再生可能エネルギー研究所／気象庁気象研究所），高松　尚宏（（独）産業技術総合研究所 福島再生可能エネルギー研究所），大関　崇（（独）産業技術総合研究所 福島再生可能エネルギー研究所）

著者名(英語): Yusuke Mori (Waseda University), Shinji Wakao (Waseda University), Hideaki Ohtake (National Institute of Advanced Science and Technology/Meteorological Research Institute), Takahiro Takamatsu (National Institute of Advanced Science and Technology), Takashi Oozeki (National Institute of Advanced Science and Technology)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，エリアPV発電予測，メソアンサンブル予報システム，Just-In-Time Modeling_x000D_　　photovoltaics (PV)，area PV power prediction，Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System，Just-In-Time Modeling

要約(英語): Photovoltaics (PV) output prediction, which is indispensable for power system operation, can affects demand and supply adjustment adversely when large prediction error occurs. Thus, the reduction of large error as well as average error is required in PV power prediction. In 2019, the operation of the Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) of numerical weather prediction started from the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the amount of forecasting information would be potentially useful for the improvement of PV power prediction. However, very few studies on inputting multiple meteorological elements of the MEPS have been reported. In this paper, we newly develop the prediction model for an area day-ahead PV power output composed of Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling) with multiple elements of the MEPS. The developed method achieves precise forecasts with low computational load by both selecting meteorological elements valid for improving prediction accuracy and adequately devising the structure of JIT Modeling. Some numerical examples demonstrating the effectiveness of the developed method are also presented. In particular, the proposed method reduces large error significantly.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.143 No.1 （2023）

本誌掲載ページ: 16-24 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/143/1/143_16/_article/-char/ja/