衛星画像予測と数値気象モデルを組み合わせた短時間先日射量予測手法の開発

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2023/02/01

タイトル(英語): Development of a Short-term Solar Irradiance Forecasting using Satellite Image in Combination with Numerical Weather Prediction Model

著者名: 橋本　篤（（一財）電力中央研究所 サステナブルシステム研究本部），由本　勝久（（一財）電力中央研究所 グリッドイノベーション研究本部）

著者名(英語): Atsushi Hashimoto (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), Katsuhisa Yoshimoto (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

キーワード: 日射量短時間予測，衛星画像予測モデル，数値気象予測モデル，組み合わせ手法　　solar irradiance short-term forecasting，satellite image prediction model，numerical weather prediction model，blending method

要約(英語): A short-term solar irradiance forecasting method has been developed to provide highly accurate prediction, using satellite image prediction model in combination with numerical weather prediction model. This method was applied and evaluated using the solar irradiance observational site at the CRIEPI Akagi Testing Center (Gunma Prefecture, Japan).Based on historical forecasting and observation datasets at JMA observation sites in the computational domain, the best blending ratio between the satellite image prediction model and the numerical weather prediction model was selected and used. The developed method has shown high accuracy. Compared to satellite image forecasting, accuracy results averaged between three and six hours of lead-time showed improvements in the RMSE by 44% for the before-sunrise case, 20% for the after-sunrise case, and 8% for the noon to sunset case.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.143 No.2 （2023） 特集：令和4年電力・エネルギー部門大会

本誌掲載ページ: 86-96 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/143/2/143_86/_article/-char/ja/