PV・EV大量導入時の小地域レベル電力需要の想定手法の考案と愛知県を対象とした試算

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2024/02/01

タイトル(英語): Methodology for Assuming Electricity Demand at the Detailed Regional Level at the Time of Mass PV/EV Diffusion and Estimation for Aichi Prefecture

著者名: 上野　剛（（一財）電力中央研究所），高木　雅昭（（一財）電力中央研究所），安田　昇平（（一財）電力中央研究所）

著者名(英語): Tsuyoshi Ueno (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), Masaaki Takagi (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), Shohei Yasuda (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，電気自動車，電力需要，統計データ，地理情報システム photovoltaic system，electric vehicle，electric power demand，statistical data，geographic information system

要約(英語): In this paper, a method to calculate electricity demand in the region based on scenarios regarding the future introduction of PV(photovoltaic system) and EV(Electric Vehicle) to the region were developed and were conducted trial calculations for Aichi Prefecture. The main findings are as follows: 1) Annual net electricity demand in Aichi Prefecture will tend to decline as the number of residences decreases and PV penetration increases; if only EVs are deployed as targeted by the government and PV penetration is slow, the decline will be moderate. 2) As of 2050, regardless of scenario, the demand curve will be duck-curved in Aichi Prefecture as a whole. This trend will be particularly severe during May holidays when electricity load is low, and net electricity demand will be negative in Aichi Prefecture if PV penetration is as high as the government target. 3) The impact on net electricity demand will vary by region, with a small impact in the central Nagoya area, but a larger impact in the suburbs, and an increase in the number of regions where net electricity demand will be negative, either temporarily or as an annual total.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.144 No.2 （2024） 特集：令和5年電力・エネルギー部門大会

本誌掲載ページ: 41-50 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/144/2/144_41/_article/-char/ja/