WRFによるパラメータアンサンブル予測を用いた翌日の日射量予測大外し予見

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2024/06/01

タイトル(英語): Foreseeing of Next-day Large Forecast Error of Solar Irradiance by Parameter Ensemble Forecasting using WRF

著者名: 河合　美咲（名古屋大学大学院工学研究科電気工学専攻），占部　千由（名古屋大学 未来材料・システム研究所），加藤　丈佳（名古屋大学 未来材料・システム研究所），宇野　史睦（日本大学文理学部 地球科学科）

著者名(英語): Misaki Kawai (Department of Electrical Engineering, Grad School of Engineering, Nagoya University), Chiyori T. Urabe (Institute of Materials and Systems for Sustainability, Nagoya University), Takeyoshi Kato (Institute of Materials and Systems for Sustainability, Nagoya University), Fumichika Uno (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, College of Humanities and Sciences, Nihon University)

キーワード: 太陽光発電，日射量予測，アンサンブル予測，数値気象予報モデル　　photovoltaic power generation，irradiance forecast，ensemble forecast，numerical weather prediction model

要約(英語): Under the condition of high penetration of PV system, large forecast error of solar irradiance can affect power supply and demand adjustment for example shortage of power supply and surplus power. Therefore, this study develops a model to foresee large forecast error of solar irradiance based on a variety of forecasted values of weather parameters such as low-level cloud cover caused by different combinations of physical schemes in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is used as NWP model. The performance of the large forecast error foreseeing is evaluated by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and False alarm rate (FAR) at Hit rate (HR) of 0.9. Target areas are Nagoya, Shizuoka, Nagano and Toyama. The results show that low-level cloud cover is useful for foreseeing of large forecast error of solar irradiance in summer at each area because of low false alarms with high hit rates. Furthermore, it is shown that useful weather parameters for foreseeing large forecast error of solar irradiance differ depending on areas and seasons, for example, in Nagano, Middle-level cloud cover is useful in seasons other than summer.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.144 No.6 （2024）

本誌掲載ページ: 384-392 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/144/6/144_384/_article/-char/ja/