風力発電予測手法とその信頼区間の推定手法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【C】電子・情報・システム部門

発行日: 2011/10/01

タイトル(英語): A Wind Power Forecasting Method and Its Confidence Interval Estimation

著者名: 飯坂　達也（富士電機システムズ（株）），神通川　亨（富士電機システムズ（株）），近藤　英幸（富士電機システムズ（株）），中西　要祐（富士電機システムズ（株）），福山　良和（富士電機ホールディングズ（株）），森　啓之（明治大学）

著者名(英語): Tatsuya Iizaka (Fuji Electric Systems Co., Ltd.), Ryo Jintsugawa (Fuji Electric Systems Co., Ltd.), Hideyuki Kondo (Fuji Electric Systems Co., Ltd.), Yousuke Nakanishi (Fuji Electric Systems Co., Ltd.), Yoshikazu Fukuyama (Fuji Electric Holdings Co., Ltd.), Hiroyuki Mori (Meiji University)

キーワード: 風力発電，予測，ファジィ推論，信頼区間　　wind power generation，forecasting，fuzzy inference，confidence interval

要約(英語): This paper describes a wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation. Recently, flat control of wind power generators by various batteries is required. For the flat control, accurate wind power forecasts and their error confidence intervals are needed. In this paper, wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using GPV (Grid Point Vale) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by the fuzzy inference using the latest errors. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power-curves. The power-curves are selected or combined by fuzzy inference depending on wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by the other fuzzy inference. The proposed methods are applied to actual wind power generators, and found that forecasting errors are better than the conventional methods. The almost all of forecasts can be within error confidence intervals estimated by the proposed method. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌C（電子・情報・システム部門誌） Vol.131 No.10 （2011） 特集：再生可能エネルギーの出力変動対応技術

本誌掲載ページ: 1672-1678 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejeiss/131/10/131_10_1672/_article/-char/ja/