予測誤差のばらつきを考慮した系統全域におけるアンサンブル平均日射量予測に関する一検討

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【C】電子・情報・システム部門

発行日: 2011/10/01

タイトル(英語): A Study on Forecast of Ensemble Average Insolation in Utility Service Area Considering Diversity of Forecast Error

著者名: 鈴木　康紀（名古屋大学），加藤　丈佳（名古屋大学），鈴置　保雄（名古屋大学）

著者名(英語): Kouki Suzuki (Nagoya University), Takeyoshi Kato (Nagoya University), Yasuo Suzuoki (Nagoya University)

キーワード: 太陽光発電システム，日射量予測，天気予報，電力系統　　photovoltaic power generation system，insolation forecast，weather forecast，electric power system

要約(英語): A photovoltaic power generation system (PVS) is one of the promising measures to develop a low carbon society. Because of the unstable power output characteristics, a robust forecast method must be employed for realizing the high penetration of PVS into an electric power system. Considering the difference in power output patterns among PVSs dispersed in the service area of electric power system, the forecast error would vary among locations, resulting in the reduced forecast error of the ensemble average power output of high penetration PVS. In this paper, by using the multi-point data of insolation observed in Chubu area during four months, we evaluated the forecast error of the ensemble average insolation of 11 districts, and compared it with the forecast error of individual district. As the results, the number of periods with the forecast error larger than the average insolation during four months is reduced by 16 hours for the ensemble average insolation compared with the average value of individual forecast. The largest forecast error during four months is also reduced to 0.45 kWh/m2 for the ensemble average insolation from 0.68 kWh/m2 on average of 11 districts.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌C（電子・情報・システム部門誌） Vol.131 No.10 （2011） 特集：再生可能エネルギーの出力変動対応技術

本誌掲載ページ: 1715-1721 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejeiss/131/10/131_10_1715/_article/-char/ja/