ガウシャンプロセスモデルによる奄美群島の電力系統台風被害予測

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【C】電子・情報・システム部門

発行日: 2012/12/01

タイトル(英語): Prediction of Electric Power Damage by Typhoons in Amami Archipelago via Gaussian Process Model

著者名: 八野　知博（鹿児島大学大学院理工学研究科），淺井　宏貴（鹿児島大学大学院理工学研究科），高田　等（鹿児島大学名誉教授）

著者名(英語): Tomohiro Hachino (Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University), Hiroki Asai (Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University), Hitoshi Takata (Professor Emeritus, Kagoshima University)

キーワード: 予測，台風被害，電力系統，ガウシャンプロセスモデル，粒子群最適化　　prediction，damage by typhoon，electric power system，Gaussian process model，particle swarm optimization

要約(英語): The Amami archipelago has suffered from natural disasters by typhoons almost every year. Typhoons badly damage the electric power systems, which causes often a long-time blackout. To perform speedy restoration of electric power supply, it is important to predict the amount of damage accurately for an approaching typhoon. This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of electric power damage in the Amami archipelago using a Gaussian process (GP) model. The predicted amount of damage is given by the predictive mean of the GP and the confidence measure of the predicted amount is estimated by the predictive covariance of the GP. Simulation results based on the actual data are shown to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed predictor.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌C（電子・情報・システム部門誌） Vol.132 No.12 （2012） 特集：電気関係学会東海支部連合大会

本誌掲載ページ: 1966-1972 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejeiss/132/12/132_1966/_article/-char/ja/