わが国の太陽光発電技術開発における資源配分の世界および国内市場に対する影響
わが国の太陽光発電技術開発における資源配分の世界および国内市場に対する影響
カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)
グループ名: 【C】電子・情報・システム部門
発行日: 2015/07/01
タイトル(英語): Influence of Resource Allocation in PV Technology Development of Japan on the World and Domestic PV Market
著者名: 遠藤 栄一(独立行政法人 産業技術総合研究所)
著者名(英語): Eiichi Endo (National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)
キーワード: 太陽電池,研究開発,資源配分,技術進歩モデル,技術知識ストック,量産効果 solar cell,R&D,resource allocation,technological progress model,technology knowledge stock,mass production effect
要約(英語): This paper analyzes influence of resource allocation in R&D of solar cells in Japan. Firstly, it estimates solar cell price in Japan in the case resource allocation for R&D of crystalline silicon solar cells was not significantly reduced, but maintained almost constant level. For the projection, it does not use experience curve, but models technological progress, price reduction, of solar cell in Japan with a variable technology knowledge stock by excluding mass production effects. Secondly, solar cell prices in other countries are estimated based on their market share in the world solar cell production. The estimated solar cell price in Japan under the assumed resource allocation decreases by about 30% compared to the actual one and it, therefore, could competitive to the estimated solar cell prices in China and Taiwan. In this case, Japan could maintain its top market share in the world solar cell production several years longer. Instead of the Japan's Feed-in Tariff with subsidy, net-metering without subsidy is enough for keeping almost the same internal rate of return of residential PV systems for new and existing houses. This paper will be helpful to cost-effective R&D planning by a modeling and simulation approach.
本誌: 電気学会論文誌C(電子・情報・システム部門誌) Vol.135 No.7 (2015) 特集:平成26 年電子・情報・システム部門大会
本誌掲載ページ: 872-881 p
原稿種別: 論文/日本語
電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejeiss/135/7/135_872/_article/-char/ja/
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