エージェント・ベースの新商品普及モデルとCaRによる売上下落現象の検出

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【C】電子・情報・システム部門

発行日: 2024/08/01

タイトル(英語): Agent-Based New Product Diffusion Model and Detection of Sales Decline Phenomenon with CaR

著者名: 岩田　遼（青山学院大学），蔵本　薫（青山学院大学），熊谷　敏（青山学院大学）

著者名(英語): Ryo Iwata (Aoyama Gakuin University), Kaoru Kuramoto (Aoyama Gakuin University), Satoshi Kumagai (Aoyama Gakuin University)

キーワード: キャズム・アット・リスク，エージェント・ベース・モデル，イノベータースコア，ロジスティック曲線モデル，口コミ　　chasm at risk，agent-based modeling，innovator scores，logistic curve，word-of-mouth

要約(英語): Chasm or crack in the diffusion process of a new product is a long-term decline in sales. If the occurrence of chasm or crack is predicted and the chasm factor is understood by analyzing consumers’ evaluation information on the product, the product can penetrate the market more effectively. In this study, we developed an agent-based diffusion model that incorporates the concepts of cluster connectivity, which represents word-of-mouth effect, product recognition range, which represents promotion effect, and purchase probability of individual consumers, which are not considered in conventional models, to reproduce the diffusion process of new products. Furthermore, the amount of sales decline that can occur in the diffusion process of a new product is calculated by using the Chasm at Risk (CaR), and detect chasm or crack in the product. For validation, we reproduced the diffusion process of a new product and the occurrence of chasm or crack using data from an O2O site, which gathers users who go back and forth between online on Web and offline in real stores. In addition, we also examined the method of chasm suppression when the effects of consumer word-of-mouth and company promotion were varied.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌C（電子・情報・システム部門誌） Vol.144 No.8 （2024） 特集Ⅰ：Smart Cityを支える高度な無線通信，センシング及び情報処理　特集Ⅱ：人と人とを繋ぐ情報・システム技術

本誌掲載ページ: 838-850 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejeiss/144/8/144_838/_article/-char/ja/