状態空間モデルによる漏水量変化の統合推定手法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【D】産業応用部門

発行日: 2024/02/01

タイトル(英語): Integrated Estimation Method for Leakage Change based on a State-Space Model

著者名: 足立　進吾（（株）日立製作所 研究開発グループ），小泉　賢司（（株）日立製作所 研究開発グループ），高橋　信補（（株）日立製作所 研究開発グループ），小熊　基朗（（株）日立製作所 社会ビジネスユニット）

著者名(英語): Shingo Adachi (Research & Development Group, Hitachi, Ltd.), Kenji Koizumi (Research & Development Group, Hitachi, Ltd.), Shinsuke Takahashi (Research & Development Group, Hitachi, Ltd.), Motoaki Oguma (Social Infrastructure Systems Business Unit, Hitachi, Ltd.)

キーワード: 水道，漏水，ベイズ推定，階層ベイズモデル，状態空間モデル water supply，leakage，Bayesian estimation，Bayesian multilevel model，state-space model

要約(英語): With aging pipe infrastructure, leakage management has become a critical issue for the sustainable operation of water supply. Several surrogate indicators and analysis methods are independently used to estimate leakage in a water distribution network. However, their accuracy leaves room for improvement due to their strict assumptions, such as linear leakage growth. This paper proposes a method for estimating leakage change by combining different indicators to achieve higher accuracy and consistency for the combined data. The proposed method is based on a state-space model of leakage change and its observation in Bayesian multilevel settings. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is used to estimate leakage and other parameters of the proposed model. The proposed method was applied to a case, and it was confirmed that the proposed method reduced the level of error in leakage estimation by half compared with an existing method.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌D（産業応用部門誌） Vol.144 No.2 （2024）

本誌掲載ページ: 30-36 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejias/144/2/144_30/_article/-char/ja/