A Rolling Grey Model for Railway Passenger Volume Forecast

カテゴリ: 研究会(論文単位)

論文No: TER18001

グループ名: 【D】産業応用部門 交通・電気鉄道研究会

発行日: 2018/01/31

タイトル(英語): A Rolling Grey Model for Railway Passenger Volume Forecast

著者名: KLUABWANG JUKKRIT(RAJAMANGALA UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY LANNA TAK)

著者名(英語): JUKKRIT KLUABWANG(RAJAMANGALA UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY LANNA TAK)

キーワード: grey forecasting model|railway passenger volume forecast|predicted value|rolling mechanism|grey forecasting model|railway passenger volume forecast|predicted value|rolling mechanism

要約(日本語): Railway passenger volume forecast plays an important role in passenger traffic organization. This article presents an application of a well-known forecasting technique, called Grey model or GM(1,1) and its modified model, namely rolling GM(1,1) or RGM(1,1) to predicting of passenger volume of Bangkok sky train system (BTS) in Thailand, between 2004 and 2016. To evaluate model suitability, two indexes, namely percentage error (PE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), have been elaborated. Real data have been divided into two parts for modelling and validating approach, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed RGM(1,1) model outperform the conventional GM(1,1) model.

要約(英語): Railway passenger volume forecast plays an important role in passenger traffic organization. This article presents an application of a well-known forecasting technique, called Grey model or GM(1,1) and its modified model, namely rolling GM(1,1) or RGM(1,1) to predicting of passenger volume of Bangkok sky train system (BTS) in Thailand, between 2004 and 2016. To evaluate model suitability, two indexes, namely percentage error (PE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), have been elaborated. Real data have been divided into two parts for modelling and validating approach, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed RGM(1,1) model outperform the conventional GM(1,1) model.

原稿種別: 英語

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