Study on Day-ahead and Hour-ahead Forecasts of Insolation in Tsukuba

カテゴリ: 全国大会

論文No: 6-084

グループ名: 【全国大会】平成27年電気学会全国大会論文集

発行日: 2015/03/05

タイトル(英語): Study on Day-ahead and Hour-ahead Forecasts of Insolation in Tsukuba

著者名: ガリダシルバフォンセカジュニア ジョアン(東京大学),大関 崇(産業技術総合研究所),大竹 秀明(産業技術総合研究所),荻本 和彦(東京大学)

著者名(英語): Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior(University of Tokyo),Takashi Oozeki(AIST),Hideaki Ohtake(AIST),Kazuhiko Ogimoto(University of Tokyo)

キーワード: 日射量予測|機会学習|気象数値予報|短時間予測

要約(日本語): Forecasts of insolation have a wide range of applications. With the dissemination of photovoltaic, PV, systems such forecasts also becoming important in the renewable energy field. In previous studies we developed a method to forecast hourly insolation, one-day ahead of time. Currently, we are modifying the proposed method to apply it in the problem of hour-ahead forecast of insolation. In this short-communication we present a method to forecast insolation one hour ahead of time, and we evaluate its performance with 1 year of data of Tsukuba city. Finally, we discuss the accuracy of the forecasts and the error reduction that occurs when changing the forecast horizon from 1 day ahead to 1 hour ahead of time.

原稿種別: 英語

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