Initial Evaluations of the Performance of an Enhanced Model to Forecast Day-ahead Solar Irradiation

カテゴリ: 全国大会

論文No: 14-15

グループ名: 【全国大会】平成31年電気学会全国大会論文集

発行日: 2019/03/01

タイトル(英語): Initial Evaluations of the Performance of an Enhanced Model to Forecast Day-ahead Solar Irradiation

著者名: Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior(University of Tokyo),Fumichika Uno(AIST),Hideaki Ohtake(AIST),Takashi Oozeki(AIST),Kazuhiko Ogimoto(University of Tokyo)

著者名(英語): Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior,Fumichika Uno,Hideaki Ohtake,Takashi Oozeki,Kazuhiko Ogimoto

キーワード: 日射量,翌日予測,太陽光発電,予測誤差の改善

要約(日本語): The objective of this study is to present initial evaluations regarding 3 modifications regarding input variables and training data, to improve day-ahead forecasts of solar irradiation. To do that the modified forecast model was compared with a reference one and with the JMA MSM solar irradiation forecasts. The forecasts targeted Kyushu area for the period of 1 year (hourly data). The results show that the modified model reduced annual mean errors by approximately 4% compared with the reference model. Regarding the JMA forecasts, the modified model had 27% higher skill score in regional scale.

本誌掲載ページ: 7-011 p

原稿種別: 英語