太陽光発電予測誤差が原因となる供給支障電力と余剰電力の評価

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2014/04/01

タイトル(英語): Evaluation of Outage and Surplus Power due to Forecast Error of Photovoltaic Generation Output

著者名: 益田　泰輔（（独）産業技術総合研究所　エネルギー技術研究部門），大関　崇（（独）産業技術総合研究所　太陽光発電工学研究センター），Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca　Junior（（独）産業技術総合研究所　太陽光発電工学研究センター），村田　晃伸（（独）産業技術総合研究所　エネルギー技術研究部門）

著者名(英語): Taisuke Masuta (Energy Technology Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)), Takashi Oozeki (Research center for Photovoltaic Technologies, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)), Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior (Research center for Photovoltaic Technologies, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)), Akinobu Murata (Energy Technology Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST))

キーワード: 太陽光発電，経済負荷配分制御，発電機起動停止計画，太陽光発電予測　　photovoltaic (PV) generation，economic-load dispatching control (EDC)，unit commitment (UC)，photovoltaic generation forecast

要約(英語): The 2011 Tohoku earthquake had a great impact on Japanese energy policy. It is expected to phase out nuclear power plants and install a large amount of generation from renewable energy sources. Attention is particularly focused on photovoltaic (PV) generation in whose technology Japan is superior, and the high price is set in feed-in tariff policy which started in 2012. However, a large integration of PV on power grids may cause imbalance between power supply and demand. It will be indispensable to use PV power generation forecasts in economic-load dispatching control (EDC), so that the economics and reliability of power systems networks can be maintained. Thus, in the previous studw, we proposed an EDC method with unit commitment (UC) based on the results provided by a day-ahead PV forecast. In this study, we evaluate the frequency and trennd of outages and surpluses of power due to the forecast error of PV power generation by numerical simulations conducted using the power system model of Kanto area in Japan. The results showed that outage or surplus power occurs not only due to overestimations or underestimations of PV power but also due to operation conditions of the power systems.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.134 No.4 （2014） 特集：電力システムの時系列データおよびその解析技術

本誌掲載ページ: 286-295 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/134/4/134_286/_article/-char/ja/