設備容量の不確実性を考慮した太陽光発電出力推定手法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【B】電力・エネルギー部門

発行日: 2014/04/01

タイトル(英語): Estimation of PV Power Generation with Unknown Operating Rate Variation

著者名: 平田　飛仙（三菱電機（株）情報技術総合研究所），今村　誠（三菱電機（株）情報技術総合研究所），菅野　幹人（三菱電機（株）情報技術総合研究所），飯塚　剛（三菱電機（株）情報技術総合研究所）

著者名(英語): Takahisa Hirata (Information Technology R&D Center, Mitsubishi Electric Corp.), Makoto Imamura (Information Technology R&D Center, Mitsubishi Electric Corp.), Mikihito Kanno (Information Technology R&D Center, Mitsubishi Electric Corp.), Tsuyoshi Iizuka (Information Technology R&D Center, Mitsubishi Electric Corp.)

キーワード: 配電系統，推定手法，太陽光発電出力，電力需要，系統負荷　　distribution system，estimation method，photovoltaic power generation，power demand，power system load

要約(英語): Because of lack of infrastructures to monitor PV (PhotoVoltaics) power generated in homes, large amount of PV power generation in power system will become unmeasurable. This problem may prevent power companies from managing their power system efficiently. To solve this problem, we propose PV power generation estimation method without requiring any historical data of actual PV power generation values or operating capacity of PV power generators. Main idea of proposed method is estimating power demand curve from solar radiation curve and power system load curve with pattern estimation method. After estimating power demand curve, we estimate PV power generation values by fitting linear combination of these curves to power system load curve. We have evaluated proposed method with actual factory data. As a result, we have found root mean square error of proposed method is less than 1.5% of maximum power demand and the error rate is independent from capacity of PV power generators.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌B（電力・エネルギー部門誌） Vol.134 No.4 （2014） 特集：電力システムの時系列データおよびその解析技術

本誌掲載ページ: 360-366 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejpes/134/4/134_360/_article/-char/ja/