遅延調査分析に基づく列車運行シミュレーションと遅延リスク評価手法

カテゴリ: 論文誌(論文単位)

グループ名: 【D】産業応用部門

発行日: 2015/04/01

タイトル(英語): Train Simulation and Delay-Risk Assessment Method Based on Delay Investigation and Analysis

著者名: 坂口　隆（公益財団法人鉄道総合技術研究所），中村　達也（西日本旅客鉄道（株）），石原　裕介（西日本旅客鉄道（株））

著者名(英語): Takashi Sakaguchi (Railway Technical Research Institute), Tatsuya Nakamura (West Japan Railway Co.), Yusuke Ishihara (West Japan Railway Co.)

キーワード: 列車ダイヤ評価，列車遅延解析，確率的シミュレーション，遅延伝播，頑健性　　timetable assessment，train delay analysis，stochastic simulation，delay propagation，robustness

要約(英語): Urban mass transit railways suffer from a limitation in that a train's trivial delay caused by passenger congestion is liable to trigger heavier congestion in and delay of other trains; this delay can continue to propagate across the urban mass transit rail network. In practice, the time required for each train operation varies from day to day because elements such as driver's skill, the number of incoming and outgoing passengers, their behavior, the timing of the door operation by a conductor influence each other. Therefore, we constructed a delay propagation model using which a stochastic train simulation can be realized on the basis of the investigation of train delay and the analysis of the factors influencing the delay propagation. Then, we developed an assessment and analysis method of train delay risk. Using the method, we can visualize the delay risk and its originating points within a timetable using the simulation results. Finally, a software program to assist a user in timetable adjustment was implemented. We performed a case study with an aim to reduce delay risk of an actual timetable by using our program. The experimental result suggests that the reduction of delay risk is possible by adjusting the timetable slightly.

本誌: 電気学会論文誌D（産業応用部門誌） Vol.135 No.4 （2015） 特集：J-RAIL 2013

本誌掲載ページ: 335-341 p

原稿種別: 論文／日本語

電子版へのリンク: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ieejias/135/4/135_335/_article/-char/ja/