エネルギーセキュリティを考慮したエネルギーシステムの最適化

カテゴリ: 全国大会

論文No: 6-010

グループ名: 【全国大会】平成21年電気学会全国大会論文集

発行日: 2009/03/15

タイトル(英語): Optimization of Energy System Considering Energy Security

著者名: 向山峻介 (東京大学),藤井 康正(東京大学)

著者名(英語): Shunsuke Mukaiyama(University of Tokyo),Yasumasa Fujii(University of Tokyo)

キーワード: 確率動的計画法|石油備蓄|エネルギーセキュリティ|価格変動リスク|供給障害リスク

要約(日本語): Japan depends on the import for many of energy resources. The risk such as the price sudden rise and the supply suspension is thought, and there is an oil reserve as one of the means to reduce these risks. In this research, domestic demand for energy is considered, and we propose the strategy that minimizes the energy system cost of Japan. The supply suspension risk and the price fluctuation risk are considered for oil. Firstly, we derive the best operation of the oil reserve by using Short-Term Model. Secondly, we optimize the power supply composition and the oil reserve equipment capacity for 20 years by using Long-Term Model. The decision making in both Short-Term Model and Long-Term Model is performed by stochastic dynamic programming. In the beginning of this paper, we explain the model settings. Then, we made a calculation solved by stochastic dynamic programming.

原稿種別: 日本語

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